Fuels and Fire Behavior Advisory for Nebraska

October 14, 2024

U.S. Drought Plain Fire Monitor Index
U.S. Drought Plain Fire Monitor Index
Subject: Critically dry conditions and delayed green up have created a volatile landscape for extreme fire behavior in portions of central Kansas and Nebraska. Discussion: Much above normal temperatures over winter combined with below normal precipitation rapidly developed drought. These dry conditions have persisted into April and have intensified over the last few weeks. As a result, green up has been slow to progress. Kansas Central Plains SIG ERC is at 95th percentile with numerous Kansas Mesonet stations and Nebraska RAWS at 97th+ percentile. Recent wildfires have exhibited extreme fire behavior and significant suppression issues. On the recent Carlson Fire (Riley and Pottawatomie County), grass flame lengths exceeded 7-9’ with cedar flame lengths 25’+. Typical barriers of timber/leaf litter are consuming efficiently and are not aiding suppression. This aggressive behavior is leading to spotting, rekindles, and extended attack. Additionally, it poses a risk to life/property and unfortunately has already resulted in injuries and a fatality. Difference from normal conditions: Spring is the climatological maximum in wildfire season in both Kansas/Nebraska. Thus far in 2022, the region has observed an increase in wildfire occurrence/severity. Moderate to Exceptional Drought with soil moisture profiles ranking in the 20th percentile. Burning index has exceeded record high values multiple times in the last week. Growing season index is at/below record low values for the time of year. Timely precipitation in 2021 yielded normal to above normal fine fuel loading for much of the region. Concerns to Firefighters and the Public: Fires will grow exponentially fast if not suppressed quickly. Any increase in wind will result in extreme fire behavior, even if below typical thresholds of concern. Rekindles and holdovers are expected from previous wildland or prescribed fire. Typical effective barriers to spread including crop stubble, timber, and leaf litter are carrying fire. Potential Fire Behavior: Anticipate extreme fire growth and expect long distance spotting. Consumption of heavier fuels with increased holdover and rekindles if not completely suppressed. In light wind scenarios, fire behavior is erratic and unpredictable. Mitigation Measures: Request mutual aid quickly, expect extended attack and anticipate limited resources. Plan for indirect attack and potential life/property risk well in advance of the fire. Increase public awareness of preceding weather on days with heavy prescribed fire. Anticipate and understand Southern Great Plains Wildfire Outbreaks and their potential. Be aware of mental and physical stresses of a prolonged and active fire season. Area of Concern: Central Kansas and Nebraska including northeast Kansas and southwest Nebraska. Issued By: Chip Redmond, Meteorologist, Kansas Forest Service and Matt Holte, Fire Team Operations Leader, Nebraska Forest Service.